So Australia, it looks like you're about to elect Tony Abbotts LNP to government.
That is your right, and in what has seemed for some time to be an exercise in picking the lesser of two evils in Australian politics, it is not the world-ending decision many on the left may feel it is.
However, I'd like to make a final case for Labor. At the last hour, against the current, to whomever may read it.
This plea won't be as sweary as some, and I doubt its virility in a social media sense, but here it is.
Tony Abbott - The Man
I will not get any joy from gaffes he make as PM. But I think he'll make them. Regrettably for himself and for us, I fear his term will be tinged with cringe. From suppositories of wisdom, to "baddies vs baddies", his strengths don't lie in unscripted commentary and banter.
I don't believe he is as bad as some may, and his stance on gay marriage seems to be softening (leaving bigger openings for the possibility of a conscience vote in recent statements), but I fear for Tony Abbott, Prime Minister of Australia.
The Economy
People know the arguments here. On the Right, we argue that Labor has put our budgets back into deficit, run up debt (the more reasonable conceding it's not a lot of debt really, but that the trend is concerning), and that the health of the economy owes more to the mining boom and previous Coalition governments than Labor's good management.
Labor certainly inherited a healthy economy, and was fortunate enough to oversee the mining boom, but credit is due for their management of the economy in tough global circumstances as well. I do not believe an economy with Labor in charge for another term will be driven into the ground.
NO REALLY, THE ECONOMY!
Some businesses are closing, the retail sector is suffering from the growth of the digital economy.
A lot of people are noticing the change in our towns and cities, but from what I hear, I believe correlation is being confused with cause and affect.
The world is changing, and it will be no different under a conservative government. Jobs are being moved offshore all over the world, manufacturing is being lost to China, more commerce is done online.
A rich nation like ours will always attract those who want to exploit it, piggy-back price rises onto new taxes (ACCC investigating electricity price rises), charge more for products here than overseas, our affluence means we're more vulnerable to off-shoring of manufacturing and jobs.
Australia's fundamental measures of unemployment, inflation, growth, and interest rates all indicate that things are not so bad as they seem. Most of us are managing to keep the roofs over our heads one way or another
I feel that a lot of anecdotal experience of the changing world is being attributed to bad government by Labor.
If you want to vote LNP, by all means do, but doing so on the basis of this issue is misguided. The Coalition can not and will not fix these problems, they're far bigger than that.
The NBN, Telstra, and Foxtel
Both the Coalition's and Labor's NBN plans will be very good for Australia. Fast internet is about much more than convenient entertainment, and both parties recognise the opportunities and improvements that this will bring to the economy.
However, one critical point seems to have been lost on the public and not entered debate.
Telstra's position as both a near-monopoly wholesaler to other telco's, and retailer to the public has needed fixing for years.
The fact that the Labor NBN will wrest wholesale ownership away from Telstra, while
Malcolm Turnbull's version of the NBN is increasingly looking like it won't has barely rated a mention in the debate.
The threat of the NBN to Foxtel has been laughed off, with arguments that the LNP's NBN would be as big a threat, and sooner.
What people don't seem to realise is that Telstra owns 50% of Foxtel and administers the Hybrid Copper Fibre (HFC) network that Foxtel is delivered via. Telstra and Foxtel want to keep their toehold in the nations telecommunications infrastructure for all manner of commercial purposes, and their interests will not always be the same as ours, the Australian publics.
The benefits and costs of Labors NBN have been widely debated, so I will not spend much more space on stating why I believe it is the better of the two NBN solutions.
What I will say is that the benefits go much farther into the future than the LNP's plan, the ongoing running costs are lower, it's much faster, and that it will help make Australia a more productive nation in the future. We'll never compete with some nations on price, so we need to produce and be more efficient.
Labor's NBN is more expensive, but not by much in terms of outlay by the government, and delivers a greater and longer return on the investment.
Turning Back The Boats
The current stance of both parties on "boat people" will have similar effect, as trouble-riddled as Labors previous policies may have been. My point is merely that I no longer think there is enough to separate the parties on this issue, it shouldn't be the issue that sways your vote either way.
Labor's previous softening of border protection policy, done on the backdrop of high public sentiment, did not work well. The Coalitions, for all it's "meanness", did.
However, the current policy of not allowing those who arrive by boat from Indonesia to gain refuge in Australia is having an affect already, with the reward for risking a sea journey on a small, unsafe boat being taken away, as tragic as the motivations behind such a trip may be.
The Coalitions policy will doubtless have a similar effect, and for whatever other cynical motives those on the left may attribute to the harder-edged aspects of it, the safety of those seeking asylum is obviously of concern to those on both sides of politics. But let's hope they drop the boat buy-back scheme, and don't wonder why the number of refugees increase when they cut $5b of foreign aid
Reduction of Emissions
I won't repeat all of the arguments here. There are better places to inform yourself of the details than my blog.
I understand that there is a cost to the economy in reducing emissions, people with strong convictions on either side of this debate will not be swayed either way.
However, given that there can be a lot of overlap between being more efficient, and producing less emissions anyway, and the possible consequences of ignoring climate change, even if there's only a small chance that the theories are correct (and there is more than a small chance), I can not see a conviction to reduce emissions as a bad thing for this country.
By dropping the Carbon Tax, or an emissions trading scheme, the momentum that we as a nation could have added to a worldwide reduction in carbon emissions is gone, even if our contribution is relatively small.
Media Support
The media has supported the left in the past. Probably never with quite the vitriol of recent support for the right, but they have.
The question we should ask is, if that's what they're giving, what are they getting in return? The effort goes far beyond reporting the uncomfortable facts, to mining for selective quotes and spinning figures in very untruthful ways.
It bothers me. What advertisers or shareholders interests could potentially conflict with the interests of the Australian people in the future?
I'm not saying to vote against the LNP because of the media support, but please try not to go the other way either. Be critical of the media and establish some of the facts yourselves.
Conclusion
I don't believe the end of the world will come after the election on Saturday. I believe there are some areas where both parties exceed the other, and that whatever we lose on the one hand, we will gain something on the other.
However, I firmly believe there is a stronger case for a re-election of the Labor government than has generally been presented in the media, and which people generally believe. I hope to add to that case
On a final note, I would ask something of you I am in no way entitled to, regardless of who you vote for, or who gets in.
Don't be so angry at politicians for doing what we ask them to do.
Rudd's unsuccessful "boats" policy had great public support at the time, it helped get him elected, but there seem to be an awful lot of critics today. They can't all have had the same view in 2007.
Likewise, if Abbott's cuts and austerity measures impact the economy, I'm sure there will be anger, but it looks to me like a large percentage of the population are telling him to do it.
We'd be much better served to respond by educating ourselves, listening to each other, and keeping an open mind. Hopefully that will translate into wiser voting the next time around.
